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Midwest Flop: Chicago PMI Signals Contraction -- Business Insider, Akin Oyedele

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  • Midwest Flop: Chicago PMI Signals Contraction -- Business Insider, Akin Oyedele

    MIDWEST FLOP: CHICAGO PMI SIGNALS CONTRACTION

    Business Insider

    Akin Oyedele
    9/30/2015

    Excerpt:

    Manufacturing activity in the Midwest is back in contraction.

    The Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) for September was reported at 48.7 by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

    This was the fifth time this year that the index fell below 50, the border between expansion and contraction.

    Economists had estimated a print of 53, down from 54.4 in August.

    According to the report, production fell to its lowest level since July 2009, following "downgrades to global economic growth and intense volatility in financial markets."

    Overall US manufacturing growth has slowed this year. Other major regional surveys, including those from the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed, were weak this month.

    In a note to clients, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson wrote: "The bigger picture, of a manufacturing sector stressed by the strong dollar, slower growth in emerging markets and the rollover in capex in the oil sector, also is consistent with weak industrial surveys."

    Shepherdson noted that manufacturing made up only 12% of gross domestic product, and so the regional manufacturing surveys should not be given more weight than they are due.

    "Very soft regional PMI releases point to a 49 reading for the tomorrow's manufacturing ISM, which would be first sub-50 print since 2012," tweeted Deutsche Bank's chief US economist, Joseph LaVorgna.

    "While activity between Q2 and Q3 actually picked up, the scale of the downturn in September following the recent global financial fallout is concerning," Philip Uglow, chief economist of MNI Indicators, said in the release. "We await the October data to better judge whether this was a knee jerk reaction and there is a bounce back, or whether it represents a more fundamental slowdown."

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    View the complete article, including images, at:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/here-...ago-pmi-2015-9
    B. Steadman

  • #2
    CARL ICAHN WARNS: The red-hot stock market is being supported by an unsustainable earnings mirage

    Business Insider

    Sam Ro
    9/29/2015

    Excerpt:

    Carl Icahn warns that trouble is coming to the financial markets.

    In a new video titled "Danger Ahead," the billionaire Wall Street veteran lays out the major problems coming out of both Washington and Wall Street to argue that what's coming next will be "very dangerous and could be disastrous."

    He started by explaining why Donald Trump had become so popular in the presidential polls. It boils down to a frustrated American public, angered by how little reform has been passed to stimulate growth. Two key issues Icahn argues must be addressed are the carried-interest tax loophole for investors and the exorbitant repatriation tax that discourages multinational companies from bringing their profits back to the US.

    For the financial markets and the economy, Icahn says the core problem is the Federal Reserve and its ultra-easy, zero-interest-rate policy. While Icahn credits the Fed with getting us out of the most recent crisis by using these policy tools, he also argues that it was the Fed that got us into that crisis to begin with.

    Icahn observed that while low rates are intended to boost business investment, in reality they have actually led corporate managers to employ financial engineering and accounting shenanigans to boost earnings per share.

    Icahn offers a very straightforward and chilling summary of what he believes to be an unsustainable and fragile set of circumstances that are propping up the stock market. And in the end we're left wondering whether we could repeat what we saw during the financial crisis. Or worse.

    Below is a summary of Icahn's warning about the stock market.

    .................................................

    View the complete article, including images, at:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/carl-...-market-2015-9
    B. Steadman

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